Formal and real voting power

The so-called power indices are considered valuable tools for the analysis of various kinds of collective choice. Their applicability for the understanding of legislative decision-making has been demonstrated. If a distinction between formal voting power and real voting power is introduced, then the power index approach to the analysis of ongoing processes of social choice becomes more relevant. The concept of real voting power implies an extension of the power index approach to take into account how actors behave in order to restrict the coalition possibilities. Thus, in a legislative setting it is more suitable for the measurement of actual power, whereas the formal power indices measure constitutional power. The differences between formal and real voting power may be quite substantial as is shown in an application of these concepts to data concerning the Swedish Riksdag during the seventies.     

The CAP is Destroying the EEC

The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Economic Community threatens to pull Europe apart. Seven eminent German economists, the Kronberger Kreis, demonstrate the political and economic tailings of the CAP. They argue in this short version prepared by Dr klaus Peter Krause of a book to be published in German that without radical reform the CAP will continue to generate massive wastage, subvent the efforts of farmers throughout the Community, provoke widespread political tension both inside and outside the Community, and force unnecessarily high prices on consumers. Two British commentators examine the importance of the Kronberger Kreis Supplement for the agricultural markets in Europe and the Third World.     

The monopoly v competition debate

Arguments for and against monopoly and competition in the provision of telecommunication services are considered from the perspective of a dominant telecommunications operator in a small European country, Sweden. The importance of provision of public services is stressed as well as the need for efficient international standardization. Finally, it is argued that there is a parallel between the position of dominant telecommunication operators in small and medium-sized countries and the INTELSAT system.     

Alternative scenarios for Ukraine

Major trends and driving forces are analysed in four areas, i.e. polity, economy, society and international environment of Ukraine, as well as their inter-linkages, in order to define overall dynamics of Ukrainian society. It leads to three basic scenarios for the medium term: a pan-Slavic state centred scenario (example Belarus), a feudalisation/mercantilist scenario (example Pakistan) and a liberalisation scenario (example Mexico). It is argued that the rent seeking state and the rent seeking economy are deeply rooted in a society that can be characterised as patrimonial. Although having some distinctive features, such as high level of human capital and an over-powerful state, Ukraine faces problems that are characteristic for many stagnating Third World countries. A predatory and patrimonial state could develop due to the weakness of civil society.As Aristotle has said, we can learn the nature of anything when it has reached and past its maturity. Since the abolishment of communism and the proclamation of independence, in 1991, Ukraine is experiencing a turbulent transition to a new social, political and economic system. The most tangible change was the transition from an industrialised country, where people were assured of a decent living standard, to a country where industrial production declined by 75 per cent and where the overwhelming majority of the population has been pushed into poverty. The scale and speed of deprivation was unheard of as was the social peace that accompanied this destructive movement. Leonid Kuchma, who played a major role in Ukraine for most of the 1990s as President and as Prime Minister, was re-elected by the Ukrainian population with a big margin (56 per cent) in November 1999, when faced with the choice between Kuchma and Symonenko, the latter being an orthodox communist. It showed, to a certain extent, the break with the communist past although Ukraine has not developed yet into a participatory democracy. But Ukraine has consolidated its status as an independent nation in the heart of Europe.However, the overall impression is that of disintegration, hierarchical breakdown and decline. Ukraine has been the only transition economy not to have known at least one year of economic growth during the 1990s. Only in 2000 the Ukrainian economy started to grow.Here, an analysis is made of defining features and major trends in the political sphere, the economy, society and the international environment in order to identify overall dynamics. This exercise allows the formulation of relevant questions about the interrelationships of the various sub-systems in society as well as the major challenges that Ukraine may face in the medium term.     

Continuous and discrete models in finance,in particular for stochastic interest rates

The paper explains a general method for constructing interest rate models in discrete time. The relevant term structure can be computed recursively in the Markovian case with finite state space. Calculations become particularly easy for binary and ternary tree structures.It is instructive to look at the diffusion limits of such Markov Chains. This diffusion limit does not inherit all properties of the Markov Chain which it approximates.